From 1 December 2011 through 15 February 2012, Cyber-Security Non-state Actors Team developed an intelligence estimate* for the U.S. Director of Cyber-Security based on the following question:
What is the outlook in the next twelve months on issues of cyber-security in terms of non-state actors as they pertain to the United States?
Analysts interpreted their tasking to focus on those actors that posed the largest threat to national security, rather than those actors whose activities affect citizens on a smaller scale. Team members produced estimates based on the results of this research; this document reflects the finding that Anonymous presents the largest threat to U.S. cyber-security.
This document outlines the consensual estimate of potential non-state actors that might affect cyber-security in the next twelve months. Furthermore, team member’s individual estimates are included to provide discussion and support for the overall estimate. The analyst’s determination of source reliability and analytic confidence follow each estimate. Each analyst also provided contact information for any feedback or questions.
*This estimate is the result of a research project undertaken as a requirement by graduate students at the Institute for Intelligence Studies at Mercyhurst University. Its content and resulting estimate is based solely upon open source information and is purely academic in nature.
Analysts interpreted their tasking to focus on those actors that posed the largest threat to national security, rather than those actors whose activities affect citizens on a smaller scale. Team members produced estimates based on the results of this research; this document reflects the finding that Anonymous presents the largest threat to U.S. cyber-security.
This document outlines the consensual estimate of potential non-state actors that might affect cyber-security in the next twelve months. Furthermore, team member’s individual estimates are included to provide discussion and support for the overall estimate. The analyst’s determination of source reliability and analytic confidence follow each estimate. Each analyst also provided contact information for any feedback or questions.
*This estimate is the result of a research project undertaken as a requirement by graduate students at the Institute for Intelligence Studies at Mercyhurst University. Its content and resulting estimate is based solely upon open source information and is purely academic in nature.