Main Threats To U.S. Cyber Security Unlikely To Come From Terrorism, Organized Crime
Executive Summary:
Other hacking groups and lone wolf actors will likely pose the largest threat to cyber security outside of Anonymous in the next twelve months. These actors will likely have more specific motivations and goals than the much larger Anonymous. It is unlikely that organized crime like the Russian Business Network (RBN) will extend their activities past cyber-attacks for financial gain in the next 12 months. It is highly unlikely that al-Qaeda will launch a cyber-attack against the United States within the next 12 months, due primarily to unsophisticated hacking techniques, their apparent lack of effort for the past three years, and the loss of their key cyber-attacks leaders.
Discussion:
The Hacker Army and other groups often have a more refined set of motivations and goals than Anonymous. Image source: http://bit.ly/AjThtr
Hacking groups such as The Hacker Army and TeaMp0isoN pose a threat to cyber security in the United States, but as a distant second to Anonymous. These groups execute attacks against a more specific set of targets to meet more concrete goals and objectives. The Hacker Army is a group of Palestinian hackers whose primary motivation is freedom for the states of Jammu and Kashmir from India.[1] Fox News connected TeaMp0isoN to other groups known to be anti-U.S., anti-Israel, and
anti-India. TeaMp0isoN member Hex0010 stated, “A lot of people consider us being a religious type thing -- in reality it's not. When international governments are doing wrong and trying to hide from it, we're there.”[2] These groups likely will not pose a threat to U.S. cyber-security, unless they deem U.S. policy decisions or other actions egregious enough to merit a response. Even then, these groups’ targets will likely be much more predictable, making them easier to address than Anonymous.
Lone wolf actors pose a threat to the financial security of American consumers, but this threat does not extend to the cyber security of the U.S. government. A majority of banking executives in an August 2011 poll expressed fears that cyber-crime was uncontrollable.[3] “In increments of a few thousand dollars to a few million per theft, cybercrooks are stealing as much as $1 billion a year from small and mid-sized bank accounts in the U.S. and Europe.
Russia is stil
A botnet is a collection of computers compromised by an attacker, who can sell access to the botnet for spamming and DDoS attacks. Image Source: http://bit.ly/g9l6xo
l active in cyber-crimes, but they will likely continue to limit their activities to illegal money-making schemes such as phishing and malware. RBN provides hosting for these services, and to services devoted to child pornography, spamming and identity theft.[4] Although these activities pose a serious risk to consumers in America, RBN is unlikely to pose a significant threat to national security. The most significant aspect of RBN comes from the Storm Botnet, which originated in January 2007 and at one point may have controlled anywhere from one to fifty million computers.[5] However, in late 2008, the Storm Botnet’s internet footprint decreased to around 160,000 infected systems.[6]
Al-Qaeda’s interest in cyber-attacks dates back to 2001, but their only successful cyber-attacks consist of some posting of propaganda and credit card fraud. Other, more advanced cyber-attacks have failed. More recently, British officials hacked into an al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) website and replaced information on bomb making with recipes for cupcakes. According to the report on the incident, AQAP took two weeks to fix their website.[7]
Al-Qaeda halted its sustained efforts to assemble a serious cyber-attack force in 2008.[8] Al-Qaeda could implement simpler means such as various DoS attacks; however, it is likely that without more experienced members these hacks would not be effective. Although it is possible that al-Qaeda uses internal m
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was one of al-Qaeda’s most knowledgeable internet experts. Image source: http://tinyurl.com/7beh4kr
embers to work on a cyber-attack, it would likely be very difficult to conduct a large-scale cyber assault without communicating with more experienced hackers around the world.
Starting in 2002, government forces have successfully hunted down potential al-Qaeda cyber-attack leaders. Officials reported Abu Anas al Liby, one of al Qaeda's ranking computer experts, apprehended in Sudan in 2002[9], although American officials have since said that his whereabouts are still unknown. Officials apprehended Al-Daour and Tsouli in 2007 after discovering that the pair stole about EUR 2.5 million from credit card information to fund al-Qaeda.[10] Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence captured Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in Pakistan in 2003 and he is currently imprisoned at Guantanamo Bay.[11] British police officials arrested Younis Tsouli, author of “Seminar on Hacking Websites” and al-Qaeda member, in the U.K. in 2005 and convicted him of incitement to acts of terrorism in 2007.[12]
Analytic Confidence:
Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability is high and sources could be corroborated. The analyst’s expertise is medium and the analyst collaborated with a team. Subject complexity is medium and the time available for the task was adequate.
Executive Summary:
Other hacking groups and lone wolf actors will likely pose the largest threat to cyber security outside of Anonymous in the next twelve months. These actors will likely have more specific motivations and goals than the much larger Anonymous. It is unlikely that organized crime like the Russian Business Network (RBN) will extend their activities past cyber-attacks for financial gain in the next 12 months. It is highly unlikely that al-Qaeda will launch a cyber-attack against the United States within the next 12 months, due primarily to unsophisticated hacking techniques, their apparent lack of effort for the past three years, and the loss of their key cyber-attacks leaders.
Discussion:
Hacking groups such as The Hacker Army and TeaMp0isoN pose a threat to cyber security in the United States, but as a distant second to Anonymous. These groups execute attacks against a more specific set of targets to meet more concrete goals and objectives. The Hacker Army is a group of Palestinian hackers whose primary motivation is freedom for the states of Jammu and Kashmir from India.[1] Fox News connected TeaMp0isoN to other groups known to be anti-U.S., anti-Israel, and
anti-India. TeaMp0isoN member Hex0010 stated, “A lot of people consider us being a religious type thing -- in reality it's not. When international governments are doing wrong and trying to hide from it, we're there.”[2] These groups likely will not pose a threat to U.S. cyber-security, unless they deem U.S. policy decisions or other actions egregious enough to merit a response. Even then, these groups’ targets will likely be much more predictable, making them easier to address than Anonymous.
Lone wolf actors pose a threat to the financial security of American consumers, but this threat does not extend to the cyber security of the U.S. government. A majority of banking executives in an August 2011 poll expressed fears that cyber-crime was uncontrollable.[3] “In increments of a few thousand dollars to a few million per theft, cybercrooks are stealing as much as $1 billion a year from small and mid-sized bank accounts in the U.S. and Europe.
Russia is stil
Al-Qaeda’s interest in cyber-attacks dates back to 2001, but their only successful cyber-attacks consist of some posting of propaganda and credit card fraud. Other, more advanced cyber-attacks have failed. More recently, British officials hacked into an al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) website and replaced information on bomb making with recipes for cupcakes. According to the report on the incident, AQAP took two weeks to fix their website.[7]
Al-Qaeda halted its sustained efforts to assemble a serious cyber-attack force in 2008.[8] Al-Qaeda could implement simpler means such as various DoS attacks; however, it is likely that without more experienced members these hacks would not be effective. Although it is possible that al-Qaeda uses internal m
Starting in 2002, government forces have successfully hunted down potential al-Qaeda cyber-attack leaders. Officials reported Abu Anas al Liby, one of al Qaeda's ranking computer experts, apprehended in Sudan in 2002[9], although American officials have since said that his whereabouts are still unknown. Officials apprehended Al-Daour and Tsouli in 2007 after discovering that the pair stole about EUR 2.5 million from credit card information to fund al-Qaeda.[10] Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence captured Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in Pakistan in 2003 and he is currently imprisoned at Guantanamo Bay.[11] British police officials arrested Younis Tsouli, author of “Seminar on Hacking Websites” and al-Qaeda member, in the U.K. in 2005 and convicted him of incitement to acts of terrorism in 2007.[12]
Analytic Confidence:
Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability is high and sources could be corroborated. The analyst’s expertise is medium and the analyst collaborated with a team. Subject complexity is medium and the time available for the task was adequate.
[1] http://www.facebook.com/TheHackersArmyOffical/posts/271088222959663
[2] http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/06/23/hacker-vs-hacker-group-races-police-to-expose-lulzsec/
[3] http://www.finextra.com/news/fullstory.aspx?newsitemid=22859
[4] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101202461.html
[5] http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/dvorsky20070927/
[6] http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2007/10/21/2483/
[7] http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/06/03/cyber-attack-replaces-al-qaeda-bomb-site-with-cupcake-recipes-report/
[8] http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/05/03/threat-of-future-cyber-attacks-by-al-qaeda-remains-low/
[9] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/1881397.stm
[10] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7191248.stm
[11] http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/profiles/khalid_shaikh_mohammed.htm
[12] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7191597.stm