It is likely that the hactivist group Anonymous will pose the largest threat to US cyber security in the next 12 months. Other smaller hacking collectives and lone wolf hackers are likely to continue to pose a threat to cyber security however their actions are likely to be overshadowed by Anonymous. Anonymous is likely to use its social standing to conduct more politicized attacks aimed at preventing internet censorship. Authorities are unlikely to predict attacks made by Anonymous as its attacks are likely to continue to be reactive rather than proactive. Finally, al-Qaeda, while possessing a threat in other areas of US National Security is unlikely to pose a serious threat to cyber-security in the next 12 months.
Anonymous’ Political Activities: It is likely that the hacktivist group Anonymous will become more politically involved in the next 12 months. Anonymous’ actions show a pattern of escalating political involvement, working against organizations and governments that limit individuals’ access to internet information. Perceived corporate or governmental violations of social, political, or environmental norms will likely be the impetus for future attacks.
Future Attacks Made By Anonymous: Anonymous is a cellular hacking collective that will most likely remain active in the cyber realm. It is highly likely that they will be a constant threat to U.S. cyber-security. Authorities are unlikely to accurately predict which targets Anonymous will attack, because the organization reacts to perceived social ills. While authorities are highly unlikely to accurately predict Anonymous’ targets, the next attacks will probably arise as retaliation to new legislation restricting internet freedoms or other unfavorable government or political activities.
Other Groups That Threaten Cyber-Security: Other hacking groups and lone wolf actors will likely pose the largest threat to cyber-security outside of Anonymous in the next twelve months. These actors will likely have more specific motivations and goals than the much larger Anonymous. It is unlikely that organized crime like the Russian Business Network (RBN) will extend their activities past cyber-attacks for financial gain in the next 12 months. It is highly unlikely that al-Qaeda will launch a cyber-attack against the United States within the next 12 months, due primarily to unsophisticated hacking techniques, their apparent lack of effort for the past three years, and the loss of their key cyber-attacks leaders.
Summary:It is likely that the hactivist group Anonymous will pose the largest threat to US cyber security in the next 12 months. Other smaller hacking collectives and lone wolf hackers are likely to continue to pose a threat to cyber security however their actions are likely to be overshadowed by Anonymous. Anonymous is likely to use its social standing to conduct more politicized attacks aimed at preventing internet censorship. Authorities are unlikely to predict attacks made by Anonymous as its attacks are likely to continue to be reactive rather than proactive. Finally, al-Qaeda, while possessing a threat in other areas of US National Security is unlikely to pose a serious threat to cyber-security in the next 12 months.