Anonymous Likely To Become More Politically Involved In The Next Twelve Months
Executive Summary:
It is likely that the hacktivist group Anonymous will become more politically involved in the next 12 months. Anonymous’ actions show a pattern of escalating political involvement, working against organizations and governments that limit individuals’ access to internet information. Perceived corporate or governmental violations of social, political, or environmental norms will likely be the impetus for future attacks.
Discussion:
Anonymous attacks are likely to continue to become more political as the U.S. government continues to look for ways to place controls on the information obtained on the Internet. With continued political success electronically and in the public arena, Anonymous will likely increase its political activity. Anonymous protests succeed because of their simplicity and wide-reaching nature. Those who support specific causes are welcome to join, while the rest sit back and watch. Attacks are most likely coordinated based on addressing a censorship or moral issue, but also for their potential for laughs or attacking actors with unwarranted self-importance.[i] The operations that attract most media attention address social injustices and other issues, especially ones concerning censorship of the internet.[ii]
Internet Relay Chat (IRC) channels allow users to post information anonymously over a secure network. This is the most common method of communication for Anonymous. Image source: http://bit.ly/yzHgyp
Anonymous first emerged in 2006 at 4chan.org, a popular image sharing site,[iii] as a simple internet group that conducted trolling escapades against many different groups. Trolling in its simplest form consists of internet pranking an individual with DDoS attacks, prank calling, or sending unpaid pizzas to the residence of the target.[iv] Anonymous addressed the Church of Scientology’s cover-up of a leaked Tom Cruise video With Project Chanology. The January 2008 attack began with these same trolling tactics until Mark Bunker, a devout critic of the church, posted a video online urging Anonymous to end their childish trolling ways and enter the political realm.[v] The group shifted gears and organized a successful protest.[vi] Over six thousand Anonymous followers, many donning Guy Fawkes masks, gathered outside Churches of Scientology around the world on 10 February 2008.[vii]
Attacks by Anonymous members in other countries date back to 2009 when a group of Anonymous members set up a secure internet forum that allowed Iranian internet users to dodge the country’s internet censorship.[viii] Following the June 2009 election in Iran the population conducted protests amidst allegations of voter rigging. To combat the protests the Iranian government blocked access to Twitter, YouTube and other social media sites as well as restricting cell phone use and texting within the country.[ix] In response to the Government’s actions Anonymous members opened the secure internet forum[x] to the protesters in addition to shutting down the Prime Minister’s website.
Anonymous employed DDoS attacks to restrict the Arab governments' ability to moniter their citizens' internet use. Image source: http://bit.ly/xj01fP
During the Arab Spring protests Anonymous members conducted attacks on Tunisian, Egyptian, and Libyan governments. In Tunisia on 3 January 2011, Anonymous successfully shut down, by means of DDOS attacks, eight governmentwebsites in response to the government’s attempt in censoring secret documents found on Wikileaks involving the corrupt nature of the government.[xi] Anonymous played a major role in ensuring the safety of online protesters, providing them with the tools to protect their own identity against the hostile governments.[xii] In February 2011 in Egypt Anonymous “gathered about 500 supporters in online forums and used software tools to bring down the sites of the Ministry of Information and President Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party…”[xiii] Finally in Libya, Anonymous members although split on the issue managed to persuade the host of Muammar Gaddafi's personal website to take it down.[xiv]
As its political involvement grew, Anonymous began to focus just as much on organizing and being a rallying point for dissent as they were focused on cyber-attacks against malicious organizations. It coordinated public and online activities in successful attacks against governments and organizations. With Project Chanology this meant protecting the public’s right to know about the Church’s practices. In the Arab Spring it meant protecting the public’s access to uncensored information.
In September 2011 Anonymous joined forces with the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement in an attempt to shift power from the 1% of the population whom hold the majority of the wealth in the US to 99% of the population.[xv] By utilizing its social media expertise Anonymous provided safe IRC channels for protesters to plan future protests and spread information to the masses.[xvi] Demonstrators at Occupy protests don the Guy Fawkes masks and hold signs displaying the Anonymous credo:[xvii] “We are Legion. We are the 99%.We do not forgive. We do not forget. Wall Street: Expect us.”
Despite pleas made by NPD members, officials have yet to make any arrests. Source: http://tinyurl.com/78r78eh
The most recent attack overseas by Anonymous targeted a Neo-Nazi Group based out of Germany and Poland. Dubbed Operation Blitzkrieg, Anonymous members created a website, nazi-leaks.net, in which users could obtain the names alleged donors to the NPD (the National Democratic Party, a nationalist party in Germany), a known Neo-Nazi supporting party.[xviii] In addition, information found on the NPD websites contained information tied to the Ron Paul campaign that Anonymous members posted to the IRC channel pirasec.com.[xix] To ensure that its message reached the group Anonymous posted its reason for attacking the Neo-Nazi group on Anonymous’ operations website.[xx]
Pressure from Anonymous and other parties led to the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) being shelved by Congress.[xxi] OpBlackout raised awareness about the potential misuses of SOPA relating to internet censorship.[xxii] Anonymous also attempted circulate online petitions against SOPA. The Obama administration distanced itself from the legislation and is now wary of any bill that could lead to censorship.[xxiii]
The most politicized issues lead to the most widespread responses from anonymous. It is likely that this trend will continue and Anonymous will continue to exert its influence in the cyber-arena regarding potentially controversial activities from companies and governments.
Analytic Confidence:
Analytic confidence for this assessment is high. Source reliability is high and sources could be corroborated. The analyst’s expertise is medium; the analyst collaborated with a team and used structured analytic methods (see Annex 1). Subject complexity is medium and the time available for the task was adequate.
Annex 1 - ACH - Analysis of two competing hypotheses on Anonymous' attack motivations
Anonymous Likely To Become More Politically Involved In The Next Twelve Months
Executive Summary:
It is likely that the hacktivist group Anonymous will become more politically involved in the next 12 months. Anonymous’ actions show a pattern of escalating political involvement, working against organizations and governments that limit individuals’ access to internet information. Perceived corporate or governmental violations of social, political, or environmental norms will likely be the impetus for future attacks.
Discussion:
Anonymous attacks are likely to continue to become more political as the U.S. government continues to look for ways to place controls on the information obtained on the Internet. With continued political success electronically and in the public arena, Anonymous will likely increase its political activity. Anonymous protests succeed because of their simplicity and wide-reaching nature. Those who support specific causes are welcome to join, while the rest sit back and watch. Attacks are most likely coordinated based on addressing a censorship or moral issue, but also for their potential for laughs or attacking actors with unwarranted self-importance.[i] The operations that attract most media attention address social injustices and other issues, especially ones concerning censorship of the internet.[ii]
Attacks by Anonymous members in other countries date back to 2009 when a group of Anonymous members set up a secure internet forum that allowed Iranian internet users to dodge the country’s internet censorship.[viii] Following the June 2009 election in Iran the population conducted protests amidst allegations of voter rigging. To combat the protests the Iranian government blocked access to Twitter, YouTube and other social media sites as well as restricting cell phone use and texting within the country.[ix] In response to the Government’s actions Anonymous members opened the secure internet forum[x] to the protesters in addition to shutting down the Prime Minister’s website.
As its political involvement grew, Anonymous began to focus just as much on organizing and being a rallying point for dissent as they were focused on cyber-attacks against malicious organizations. It coordinated public and online activities in successful attacks against governments and organizations. With Project Chanology this meant protecting the public’s right to know about the Church’s practices. In the Arab Spring it meant protecting the public’s access to uncensored information.
In September 2011 Anonymous joined forces with the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement in an attempt to shift power from the 1% of the population whom hold the majority of the wealth in the US to 99% of the population.[xv] By utilizing its social media expertise Anonymous provided safe IRC channels for protesters to plan future protests and spread information to the masses.[xvi] Demonstrators at Occupy protests don the Guy Fawkes masks and hold signs displaying the Anonymous credo:[xvii] “We are Legion. We are the 99%.We do not forgive. We do not forget. Wall Street: Expect us.”
Pressure from Anonymous and other parties led to the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) being shelved by Congress.[xxi] OpBlackout raised awareness about the potential misuses of SOPA relating to internet censorship.[xxii] Anonymous also attempted circulate online petitions against SOPA. The Obama administration distanced itself from the legislation and is now wary of any bill that could lead to censorship.[xxiii]
The most politicized issues lead to the most widespread responses from anonymous. It is likely that this trend will continue and Anonymous will continue to exert its influence in the cyber-arena regarding potentially controversial activities from companies and governments.
Analytic Confidence:
Analytic confidence for this assessment is high. Source reliability is high and sources could be corroborated. The analyst’s expertise is medium; the analyst collaborated with a team and used structured analytic methods (see Annex 1). Subject complexity is medium and the time available for the task was adequate.
[i] http://www.irongeek.com/i.php?page=security/understanding-anonymous (High)
[ii] http://www.irongeek.com/i.php?page=security/understanding-anonymous (High)
[iii] http://mediacommons.futureofthebook.org/tne/pieces/anonymous-lulz-collective-action (High)
[iv] http://mediacommons.futureofthebook.org/tne/pieces/anonymous-lulz-collective-action (High)
[v] http://mediacommons.futureofthebook.org/tne/pieces/anonymous-lulz-collective-action (High)
[vi] http://news.cnet.com/8301-10789_3-9859513-57.html, video available at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_3DpGT1roU (Medium)
[vii] IRC channels put the number of protesters at between 6,000 and 8,000: http://web.archive.org/web/20080213141939/http://www.news.com.au/technology/story/0,25642,23189971-5014108,00.html (High)
[viii] http://news.ninemsn.com.au/technology/827036/internet-underground-takes-on-iran (High)
[ix] http://news.ninemsn.com.au/technology/827036/internet-underground-takes-on-iran (High)
[x] https://whyweprotest.net/ (Medium)
[xi] http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2011/01/201113111059792596.html (High)
[xii] http://www.thenewnewinternet.com/2011/01/04/anonymous-attacks-tunisian-government-for-war-on-free-speech/ (High)
[xiii] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/world/middleeast/03hackers.html?_r=2 (High)
[xiv] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_events_involving_Anonymous#cite_note-98 (High)
[xv] http://anonnews.org/?p=press&a=item&i=1185 (High)
[xvi] http://anonops.blogspot.com/ (High)
[xvii] http://anonnews.org/?p=press&a=item&i=1185 (High)
[xviii] http://www.h-online.com/security/news/item/Anonymous-launches-web-portal-against-neo-Nazis-1403291.html (High)
[xix] http://pirasec.com/ (Medium)
[xx] http://anonops.blogspot.com/2012/02/opblitzkrieg-anonymous-strikes-neo.html (High)
[xxi] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/12/sopa-anonymous-january-18_n_1201397.html (High)
[xxii] http://anonops.blogspot.com/2011/12/anonymous-message-on-opblackout.html (High)
[xxiii] http://www.infowars.com/dead-on-arrival-sopa-shelved-indefinitely-obama-succumbs-to-pressure-issues-official-veto-threat/(High)