It Is Highly Likely That Anonymous Will Be A Constant Threat To Cyber Security In The Next Twelve Months
Executive Summary:
It is highly likely that the cellular hacking collective known as Anonymous, will remain active in the cyber realm. It is highly likely that they will be a constant threat to U.S. cyber security. Authorities are unlikely to accurately predict which targets Anonymous will attack, because the organization reacts to perceived social ills. While authorities are highly unlikely to accurately predict Anonymous’ targets, the next attacks will probably arise as retaliation to new legislation restricting internet freedoms or other unfavorable government or political activities.
Discussion:
Many authorities recognize that Anonymous is involved in much more than just criminal cyber activities.[i] With their cyber-attacks, anonymous targeted credit card processing, entertainment, energy, private security, and manufacturing companies, as well as state and local law enforcement and federal departments and agencies.[ii] It is likely that these cyber-attacks will continue. Authorities are not able to catch the best hackers. These criminals’ offensive capabilities and methods used to cover their electronic footprints are too advanced for bureaucratic investigative bodies like the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Justice, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The FBI can be reluctant to reach out to IT professional for assistance in cyber cases.[iii]
Anonymous members conduct attacks all over the world with membership representing nearly every continent. Source: http://tinyurl.com/7cnmnab
Anonymous does not function as one cohesive group, especially one with a ring leader or a strict hierarchy. Anonymous as a whole does not have ring leaders, although certain factions sometimes have main actors.[iv] “It purports to have no leaders, no hierarchical structure, nor any geographical epicenter. While there are forms of organization and cultural logics that undeniably shape its multiple expressions, it is a name that any individual or group can take on as their own.”[v] This is the crux of the problem, Anonymous is an alias that many different organized groups and individual actors can hide behind in their execution of cyber-activities. This cellular structure will likely allow Anonymous to continue cyber operations relatively unhampered by authorities. This obviously creates problems for authorities, who must focus on the actions of specific subsets of Anonymous. They cannot take action against the organization as a whole, as they do against drug rings and other criminal groups.[vi]
Although the collective has a cellular structure, it follows a flexible set of guidelines to make decisions regarding attacks. Actors or groups propose targets, and those who agree participate. Those who do not agree with the attack simply remain idle.[vii] The collective’s anonymity allows it to maintain what continuity it has while protecting those who agree with the organization, just not with the nature of some specific attacks.
Steps taken by the FBI to address this threat thus far are ineffective.[viii]Anonymous attacks are likely to continue to become more political as the U.S. government continues to look for ways to place controls on the information obtained on the Internet. Recently, Anonymous attacked several Department of Justice and FBI websites in response to the shutdown of MegaUpload.com.[ix] Anonymous also attacked Sony for the second time due to its support of the SOPA legislation.[x] Prior to these attacks in January and February 2012, Anonymous was implicated or involved in attacks against Stratfor,[xi] various banks,[xii] and a vast array of other targets. Anonymous is highly likely to continue their attacks against U.S. and international targets.
The collective’s motivations primarily come from perceived corporate or governmental violations of the groups’ social, political, or environmental norms, which often coalesce around high-profile social
SOPA protests included several other groups as Wikipedia and Google blacked out its’ websites for a day. Source: http://tinyurl.com/6mg2zyb
issues.[xiii] Also, Anonymous will likely respond to perceived threats against their members and other independent hackers. However, there can be a delayed response when executing cyber attacks against corporate or government entities due to the detailed reconnaissance necessary to conduct the cyber attacks.
Although there is a rough pattern of Anonymous attacks, authorities are unlikely to predict which events will elicit a response. Facebook,[xiv] the Iowa caucus,[xv] and the Los Zetas drug cartel[xvi] all withstood empty threats made by anonymous. But with Operation Robin Hood, Anonymous succeeded in attacking a small number of banks,[xvii] and the MegaUpload.com revenge spree resulted in the shutdown of many government and industry sites.[xviii]
Anonymous will likely continue targeting companies, organizations, and individuals, especially in response to publicized events relating to environmental issues, restrictions on Internet freedoms, and perceived social injustices. Certain members of these groups embarrassed and harassed their targets in the past through the release of sensitive documents and other techniques.[xix] The recent SOPA/PIPA protests and the MegaUpload.com retaliation prompted Anonymous’ most widespread responses. Therefore, although authorities are unlikely to accurately predict Anonymous’ next attack, it will probably deal with internet freedoms or another politicized issue.
Analytic Confidence:
Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability is high and sources could be corroborated. The analyst’s expertise is medium and the analyst collaborated with a team. Subject complexity is medium and the time available for the task was adequate.
It Is Highly Likely That Anonymous Will Be A Constant Threat To Cyber Security In The Next Twelve Months
Executive Summary:
It is highly likely that the cellular hacking collective known as Anonymous, will remain active in the cyber realm. It is highly likely that they will be a constant threat to U.S. cyber security. Authorities are unlikely to accurately predict which targets Anonymous will attack, because the organization reacts to perceived social ills. While authorities are highly unlikely to accurately predict Anonymous’ targets, the next attacks will probably arise as retaliation to new legislation restricting internet freedoms or other unfavorable government or political activities.
Discussion:
Many authorities recognize that Anonymous is involved in much more than just criminal cyber activities.[i] With their cyber-attacks, anonymous targeted credit card processing, entertainment, energy, private security, and manufacturing companies, as well as state and local law enforcement and federal departments and agencies.[ii] It is likely that these cyber-attacks will continue. Authorities are not able to catch the best hackers. These criminals’ offensive capabilities and methods used to cover their electronic footprints are too advanced for bureaucratic investigative bodies like the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Justice, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The FBI can be reluctant to reach out to IT professional for assistance in cyber cases.[iii]
Although the collective has a cellular structure, it follows a flexible set of guidelines to make decisions regarding attacks. Actors or groups propose targets, and those who agree participate. Those who do not agree with the attack simply remain idle.[vii] The collective’s anonymity allows it to maintain what continuity it has while protecting those who agree with the organization, just not with the nature of some specific attacks.
Steps taken by the FBI to address this threat thus far are ineffective.[viii]Anonymous attacks are likely to continue to become more political as the U.S. government continues to look for ways to place controls on the information obtained on the Internet. Recently, Anonymous attacked several Department of Justice and FBI websites in response to the shutdown of MegaUpload.com.[ix] Anonymous also attacked Sony for the second time due to its support of the SOPA legislation.[x] Prior to these attacks in January and February 2012, Anonymous was implicated or involved in attacks against Stratfor,[xi] various banks,[xii] and a vast array of other targets. Anonymous is highly likely to continue their attacks against U.S. and international targets.
The collective’s motivations primarily come from perceived corporate or governmental violations of the groups’ social, political, or environmental norms, which often coalesce around high-profile social
Although there is a rough pattern of Anonymous attacks, authorities are unlikely to predict which events will elicit a response. Facebook,[xiv] the Iowa caucus,[xv] and the Los Zetas drug cartel[xvi] all withstood empty threats made by anonymous. But with Operation Robin Hood, Anonymous succeeded in attacking a small number of banks,[xvii] and the MegaUpload.com revenge spree resulted in the shutdown of many government and industry sites.[xviii]
Anonymous will likely continue targeting companies, organizations, and individuals, especially in response to publicized events relating to environmental issues, restrictions on Internet freedoms, and perceived social injustices. Certain members of these groups embarrassed and harassed their targets in the past through the release of sensitive documents and other techniques.[xix] The recent SOPA/PIPA protests and the MegaUpload.com retaliation prompted Anonymous’ most widespread responses. Therefore, although authorities are unlikely to accurately predict Anonymous’ next attack, it will probably deal with internet freedoms or another politicized issue.
Analytic Confidence:
Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability is high and sources could be corroborated. The analyst’s expertise is medium and the analyst collaborated with a team. Subject complexity is medium and the time available for the task was adequate.
[i] DHS and FBI. (2012). Anonymous and LulzSec: Motivations and Demonstrated Capabilities. (UFOUO) (Very High)
[ii] DHS and FBI. (2012). Anonymous and LulzSec: Motivations and Demonstrated Capabilities. (UFOUO) (Very High)
[iii] “Johnson offered to help the FBI with more cases. He didn't get the open-armed response he had hoped for and a conversation with the agents lead him to believe that the FBI was rejecting his offer to become a contractor because he was older than 40.” http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/what-happens-if-you-catch-hacker-and-must-dea(High)
[iv] http://www.irongeek.com/i.php?page=security/understanding-anonymous(High)
[v] http://mediacommons.futureofthebook.org/tne/pieces/anonymous-lulz-collective-action(High)
[vi] DHS and FBI. (2012). Anonymous and LulzSec: Motivations and Demonstrated Capabilities. (UFOUO) (Very High)
[vii] http://www.irongeek.com/i.php?page=security/understanding-anonymous(High)
[viii] The FBI’s Cyber Crime page lists new cyber action teams, but there is little information on successes of these programs. http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/investigate/cyber/computer-intrusions(Very High)
[ix] http://www.thelantern.com/mobile/campus/anonymous-group-hacks-sites-in-reprisal-protest-sopa-and-pipa-1.2747479(High)
[x] http://socialbarrel.com/anonymous-hacks-sony-again-for-supporting-sopa/29985/(High)
[xi] Outlets originally implicated Anonymous in the attack, http://venturebeat.com/2011/12/30/stratfor-data-dump/ (High) but the group denied its involvement, saying “The Stratfor hack is not the work of Anonymous. Stratfor is an open source intelligence agency, publishing daily reports on data collected from the open Internet. Hackers claiming to be Anonymous have distorted this truth in order to further their hidden agenda, and some Anons have taken the bait.” http://www.tgdaily.com/security-features/60413-anonymous-denies-stratfor-hack(High)
[xii] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMxlYfkIEdQ(Medium)
[xiii] DHS and FBI. (2012). Anonymous and LulzSec: Motivations and Demonstrated Capabilities. (UFOUO) (Very High)
[xiv] http://www.dailydot.com/politics/anonymous-guy-fawkes-day-bust/(High)
[xv] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/19/iowa-caucus-2012-hacker-anonymous_n_1157556.html(High)
[xvi] http://www.dailydot.com/news/anonymous-los-zetas-opcartel-end/(High)
[xvii] http://www.itworld.com/security/229141/team-poison-anonymous-campaigners-claim-first-victims-oprobinhood (High)
[xviii] http://gizmodo.com/5877679/anonymous-kills-department-of-justice-site-in-megaupload-revenge-strike(High)
[xix] DHS and FBI. (2012). Anonymous and LulzSec: Motivations and Demonstrated Capabilities. (U//FOUO) (Very High)